The world's most accurate AI weather forecasts

Microsoft Weather has been pioneering AI-powered weather forecasting for years. Our deep experience developing AI models and delivering weather at global scale is the foundation for a new generation of forecasting, powering Microsoft experiences and helping enterprises turn weather intelligence into better decisions.

Microsoft Weather — global AI forecasting

Independently verified. Proven at planetary scale.

Independent Ranking

#1

Most accurate global forecast provider, 2022–2024, and for days 1–7 through 2025.

ForecastWatch

Accuracy

+22%/+5 Days

Average lower error with GridHD + PointCast's wind is as accurate at day 6 as ECMWF is at day 1.

GridHD EU regional + Pointcast Asset Model

Competitions

1st

In the first two seasons of the 2026 AI Weather Quest for subseasonal forecasts and leading in the AINPP nowcast competition.

ECMWF & WMO

At Scale

1B+

Devices served by our forecasts in Windows, Bing, Copilot, and more, for over 8 years.

Mature Pipelines and Enterprise Grade

Our approach

Weather impacts aren't just one problem, why have just one model?

We run a complete portfolio spanning every horizon, so each customer need can be solved by applying the right model to the decision in front of them — fit for purpose in resolution, frequency, cost, and value.

From the next five minutes to the next six weeks · an integrated portfolio, all Azure-native and runnable in your own tenant.*

A model for every horizon

Analysis/ObsCast

Real-time

AI data assimilation that initializes models any time from fresh observations

outperformed NWP benchmarks in the first 12–18 hours

Nowcast

Minutes

hyperlocal precipitation in 4–10 minute steps out to 4 hours

leads the WMO AINPP nowcast competition · 1–2 km · 46 markets

GridHD

Hours

high-definition regional forecasts at 2–5 km, hourly refresh out to 24–48 hours

outperforms all regional NWP on surface variables

PointCast

Hours–days

station-tuned forecasts for your exact assets, 130,000+ locations

#1 ForecastWatch three years running · 20TB+ daily

Medium Range + Ensemble

Days

deterministic and ensemble forecasts, 22 new variables, hourly steps, 48 members out 15 days

Outperforms ECMWF IFS ensemble on 89% of measured targets

XR

Weeks

30-day ensemble outlooks with daily-confidence guidance

superior track metrics across major multi-system ensembles

S2S

Months

6-week subseasonal guidance for planning and trading

won the 2026 ECMWF Subseasonal AI Weather Quest

AI Weather Agent

Always-on

an always-on agentic decision-support solution

1st in the industry · shipped January 2026 · 98% responsible-AI success rate

*Not all models available yet for customer use

Open · MIT

Aurora — built here, released to the world

Aurora is a 1.3-billion-parameter foundation model of the Earth system, published in Nature in 2025 and released as open source. Available today in Azure AI Foundry, its capabilities span weather, ocean waves, air quality, and cyclone tracking. Released in September 2026, Aurora 1.5 builds on this foundation with ensemble forecasting, hourly resolution, and 22 new variables.

Published in Nature (2025) · 1.3B parameters, 0.1° resolution · Open source in Azure AI Foundry

Customer success

Sharper forecasts for a Swiss energy leader

BKW, a leading Swiss energy company, needed to plan renewable generation and grid operations against volatile weather. We applied the right models from our portfolio — tuning Aurora and operational GridHD to their operations — helping their teams make earlier, more confident decisions.

Longer lead time, more confident decisions

Read more
Renewable energy operations planned against the weather
Server racks in a modern data center operations facility

Photo by İsmail Enes Ayhan on Unsplash

Customer success

Always-on weather intelligence for data-center operations

Data-center operations teams across the Southeast U.S. needed real-time and forecast weather intelligence for safety, cooling optimization, and business continuity. Microsoft Weather datasets were integrated through an MCP server and combined with operational data to power a custom, always-on agentic solution.

24/7 dashboards, daily briefings, alerts, resiliency triggers, and 72-hour outlooks

Custom integration · Shipped November 2025

What people are saying

"This collaboration demonstrates how advanced AI capabilities and robust cloud infrastructure can be applied to one of the most strategic domains — energy, where weather plays a fundamental role. In a time of accelerated transformation, it supports our ambition to operate increasingly renewable-based systems, where generation is inherently weather-dependent, and to better anticipate and manage this variability with greater confidence and precision."

Farhat Quiñones Yamshid

AI and Technology, BKW

"Microsoft's Aurora model is an exciting and promising tool, enabling Met Office scientists to bring their data and expertise to help solve climate problems and provide new kinds of climate information. Aurora is a great platform for learning how to translate these tools for use in climate projection to make the AI climate models of the future."

Doug McNeall

Science Lead for Data-Driven Climate Modelling, Met Office Hadley Centre

Independently verified and peer-reviewed · example results from across our model portfolio.

World-leading accuracy

~5,000x

faster than traditional NWP (Aurora)

+89%

of measured targets outperformed (ECMWF IFS ensemble)

7

operational centers beaten on tropical-cyclone track accuracy (Aurora)

PointCast — precision asset forecasting

Verified global leader

Lead Time Advantage

  • Hourly WindIFS Day 1 → PointCast Day 6
  • Hourly TemperatureIFS Day 1 → PointCast Day 4
  • Hourly PrecipitationIFS Day 1 → PointCast Day 4
  • Hourly Cloud CoverIFS Day 1 → PointCast Day 6
  • Daily WindIFS Day 3 → PointCast Day 8
  • Daily TemperatureIFS Day 3 → PointCast Day 7
  • Daily PrecipitationIFS Day 3 → PointCast Day 7
  • Daily Cloud CoverIFS Day 3 → PointCast Day 9

Global Accuracy Gains

Hourly Wind

+24%

MAE err

Hourly Temp

+24%

MAE err

Hourly Precip

+44%

Brier off

Hourly Cloud

+14%

Brier off

Daily Wind

+38%

MAE err

Daily Temp

+35%

MAE err

Daily Precip

+56%

Brier off

Daily Cloud

+20%

Brier off

PointCast vs ECMWF IFS · Spring 2026 (March–May) · 1–9 day forecasts · 2,000 global stations

New

PointCast study integrated customer station data to achieve >15% additional accuracy!

GridHD — high-definition regional forecasts

Regional model

EU 48-hour model: mean RMSE over all 0–48 h leads, each variable compared to the strongest non-GridHD baseline.

7/7 variables improved 22% avg. lower RMSE 34% lower Temp RMSE

Temperature

34% lower RMSE

Dew point

15% lower RMSE

Specific humidity

13% lower RMSE

U-wind

20% lower RMSE

V-wind

21% lower RMSE

Wind speed

32% lower RMSE

Pressure

17% lower RMSE

The largest gains are in terrain-sensitive variables — temperature, dew point, and wind — which directly affect solar generation, wind forecasting, grid load, and operational risk windows.

Microsoft AI · July 2026

Common questions about AI modeling

Q Are AI weather models more accurate than accepted industry benchmarks?

Yes. Our evaluations show that modern AI weather models consistently deliver forecast skill that is competitive with, and often exceeds, established industry benchmarks. Across a wide range of variables, locations, and forecast lead times, AI-based forecasting has demonstrated strong accuracy while also providing significant advantages in speed, scalability, and operational efficiency.

Q Do AI weather models accurately forecast extreme weather?

Yes. Our analysis demonstrates that AI weather models effectively forecast a wide range of extreme weather events. While extreme events are inherently difficult forecasting problems, we have found that AI models retain strong predictive skill during high-impact conditions and are capable of identifying the signals associated with significant weather events. The results show that AI models are not limited to forecasting average conditions and can be confidently applied to operational decision-making during periods of elevated weather risk.

Q Do AI weather models accurately forecast ramp events?

Yes. Our evaluations show that AI weather models can successfully capture rapidly changing weather conditions, including wind ramps, cloud transitions, temperature shifts, and other events that are critical to energy and operational planning. Contrary to the perception that AI models smooth or miss abrupt changes, our results demonstrate that these models can detect and forecast ramp events with high skill, making them well suited for customers whose operations are sensitive to short-term weather variability.

Q Do AI weather models accurately forecast hurricanes and typhoons?

Yes. Our tropical cyclone evaluations show that AI weather models can effectively forecast hurricanes and typhoons across multiple forecast horizons. The models consistently capture storm track evolution and key intensity characteristics with a level of accuracy that supports operational forecasting and risk-management workflows. These results reinforce our confidence that AI-based forecasting is a credible and effective approach for some of the most complex and impactful weather events on Earth.

Resources

Aurora 1.5 — what's new in our open foundation model

Ensemble forecasting, hourly resolution, and 22 new variables — and how to run it.

Read more

Microsoft Weather wins top forecasting recognition for the world

Independent verification confirms world-leading forecast accuracy across all major parameters.

Read more

Microsoft Weather announces new Nowcast model with increased accuracy

Hyperlocal precipitation forecasting with improved resolution and extended lead times.

Read more

Three ways to get started.

Work with us

Evaluate

Request a capabilities briefing or a sample data feed for your geography and use case.

Build

Access our AI weather models or build a custom solution — run them in your own Azure tenant.

Partner

Explore joint solution development that combines your domain expertise with our AI weather platform.